Exercise 14.6 – Time Series AnalysisGiven the following data on Asian and European Share of U.S. Light Truck Sales(1990-2003):YeartPercent1990116.41991217.11992314.31993413.71994514.21995613.61996713.61997815.41998916.219991018.420001121.220011223.120021323.920031426.6Source: Detroit Free Press, November 19, 2003. p.1A.(a) Plot the market-share data. (b) Describe the trend (if any) and discuss possible causes. (c) Fit three trends (linear, exponential, quadratic). (d) Which trend model is best, and why? If none is satisfactory, explain. (e) Make a forecast for 2004 by using a trend model of your choice or a judgment forecast.
